Writing

One analysis a week, mostly to figure out how something actually works.

What Kalshi Thinks Will Win the College Football Playoff

kalshi

prediction-markets

college-football

Reading a prediction market’s order book as a probability estimate, and the two ways it lies to you: a one-cent price floor on longshots, and a book that adds up to more than 100%.

How This Site Works

meta

quarto

tooling

The setup for a weekly analysis habit: what happens when I write a post, why old posts never re-run, and where the code lives.

One Source, Many Outputs

quarto

tooling

The same analysis rendered as a web page, a PDF, a reveal.js deck and a PowerPoint file — and the three rules that keep all four readable.